Trucking Industry Outlook 2026: The September Numbers

Updated September 15, 2026. The recovery has cooled but rates are still well above last year. Broker-posted spot rates slipped 1.7 cents in the week ended September 11 and sit about 39 percent above a year ago (FTR and Truckstop, September 14, 2026), and DAT's dry van linehaul was $2.21 a mile, up about 39 percent on the year (FleetOwner, September 11, 2026). FTR's Trucking Conditions Index eased from a record 20.4 in May to 12.4 in July, and FTR says "the period of extraordinary improvement might be over" (TheTrucker.com, September 10, 2026; Fleet Equipment, September 14, 2026). SONAR's Outbound Tender Rejection Index hit 13.45 percent after Labor Day, and its analyst expects the market "to be tight for the rest of the year" (FreightWaves, September 10, 2026); DAT's dry van load-to-truck ratio was 12.01 in the week ended August 28 against 6.69 a year earlier (DAT, September 1, 2026). Diesel averaged a record $5.967 a gallon in the week of September 7, up $2.201 on the year (EIA; Logistics Management, September 9, 2026), and August Class 8 orders came in at 18,200 per FTR, up 42 percent on the year, and 16,800 per ACT Research, up 31 percent (Transport Topics, September 3, 2026; Truck News, September 3, 2026). What a small or mid-size fleet does before Q4: bill the day the POD lands, and do not lose a contract load to a missed 214.

The trucking industry outlook for 2026 turned a corner at mid-year. Dry van spot rates averaged $3.00 a mile in June, above contract for the first time since February 2022, per DAT. FTR's Trucking Conditions Index hit a record 20.4 in May. Rates are recovering faster than volumes, so the back half rewards carriers that run tight.

That is the short version. The longer version matters more if you dispatch trucks for a living, because this recovery is not built on a flood of new freight. It is built on capacity leaving the market. Here is what the numbers say at the halfway mark, what the forecast looks like for the back half of 2026, and what small and mid-size fleets should do about it.

Outlook 2026: The Mid-Year Numbers, for the Record

Three readings tell the story of the first half.

• Spot rates jumped. Per DAT's June reading (DAT, July 9, 2026), dry van spot averaged $3.00 a mile, up 11 cents from May, and flatbed hit an all-time high of $3.69. Van spot rates were up 45 percent from June 2025, with linehaul up 74 cents a mile. TheTrucker.com ran the same numbers with the detail that matters: rate growth beat volume growth in every trailer type.
• Spot passed contract. In the same DAT data, dry van spot beat contract for the first time since February 2022. That flip matters on the load boards. When brokers are paying more on spot than shippers are paying on contract, trucks are short, and contract rates follow spot up at the next bid cycle.
• Conditions hit a record. FTR's Trucking Conditions Index came in at 20.4 for May, the strongest reading in the history of the index, past the old mark of 16.8 from February 2021 (Truck News, July 14, 2026). Truck News reported the release along with FTR's caution that the rebound could hit a ceiling because volume growth is still thin.

Hold on to that caution. DAT analyst Dean Croke made the same point in the June report: if demand were driving this market, volumes would be climbing too, and they are not.

Trucking Industry Forecast for the Back Half of 2026

Rates: contract catches up to spot

ACT Research put aggregate contract rates 17 percent above a year ago in July, at $2.50 a mile excluding fuel (ACT Research, August 28, 2026), and DAT's van contract rate reached parity with spot at $3.01 a mile the same month after a record June-to-July gain (DAT, August 11, 2026). Once spot sits at or above contract, shippers stop winning bids at last year's numbers, and repricing works its way through contract freight one RFP at a time. Expect contract rates to keep climbing through Q4 while spot moves with produce season, holiday freight, and weather.

Capacity: fewer drivers, not more bankruptcies

The capacity story changed shape this year. Per FTR's read of quarterly FMCSA data, reported by Trucking Dive (April 13, 2026), first-quarter revocations of operating authority fell to the lowest level of any quarter since late 2021, and more carriers came in than went out. The wave of exits that defined 2023 through 2025 has mostly passed.

What is tightening now is drivers, not authorities. ACT Research counts non-domiciled CDL removals and ELD enforcement among the things holding capacity down, but says driver availability "has shown signs of stabilizing as higher pay attracts drivers" (ACT Research, August 28, 2026). ATRI found 10 percent of trucks sat unseated on average in 2025 (ATRI, July 15, 2026). Payroll data shows how thin the pool got: long-distance truckload employment fell to 496,300 in January, its lowest level since 2014 (Trucking Dive, March 20, 2026; Commercial Carrier Journal, February 17, 2026). Fewer seated trucks means fewer trucks bidding against you on every load.

Demand: flat is the word

ATA's truck tonnage index fell 1 percent in July and sat 0.5 percent below July 2025; chief economist Bob Costello called freight "lackluster" outside a few pockets such as data-center construction (ATA, August 18, 2026; Truck News, August 18, 2026). Nobody serious is forecasting a demand boom in the back half. This is a supply-side recovery.

Trucks: orders are back, but it is replacement buying

Class 8 orders for the September 2025 to August 2026 order season ran 39 percent ahead of the prior season, per FTR (Truck News, September 3, 2026), and ACT Research says the tractor fleet has contracted and available equipment "remains historically tight" (ACT Research, August 28, 2026). Most of that is fleets replacing trucks they nursed through the downturn, not fleets adding capacity. For rates, that is good news. New iron that replaces old iron does not add trucks to the market.

Will the Trucking Industry Grow in 2026?

Yes, but measure the growth in revenue, not in loads. Freight volumes are roughly flat against 2025, with ATA tonnage down 0.5 percent year over year in July (ATA, August 18, 2026). Rates are doing the growing. FTR CEO Jonathan Starks summed it up in June 2026: there is growth occurring, it is relatively slow growth, but there is growth.

For a small or mid-size fleet, that means 2026 growth comes from rate per mile and margin, not truck count. The future of the trucking industry over the next several quarters belongs to carriers that know their cost per mile by lane, reprice as contracts reset, and keep their trucks seated while the driver pool shrinks. Adding trucks into flat demand is how fleets got hurt in 2022. Getting paid more for the trucks you already run is the 2026 play.

Tariffs and Cross-Border Freight: Moving, Not Settled

Tariffs were the wild card coming into 2026, and the rules have moved every quarter since. On February 20 the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs; a 10 percent Section 122 surcharge replaced them on February 24 and lapsed under its 150-day limit on July 24, with the Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum and trucks still in place (Troutman Pepper Locke, February 24, 2026; Skadden, May 20, 2026). CUSMA was not renewed at the July 1 review and now runs on annual reviews toward 2036 (McMillan LLP, July 3, 2026). US-Canada talks collapsed on August 21 over truck tariffs; 50 percent US tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect August 22 and Canada's dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs began September 8 (Transport Topics, August 24, 2026; NPR, August 22, 2026). Plan lanes for swings, not for settled rules.

Cross-border freight kept moving through it. Trucks moved $104.4 billion in cross-border freight in June, up 23.0 percent from June 2025 and about two thirds of all transborder value, and $35.9 billion of it crossed the US-Canada border (BTS, August 19, 2026; Truck News, August 19, 2026). Loadlink's August index had outbound cross-border loads up 112 percent on the year (Loadlink, September 14, 2026). For cross-border carriers, the lanes are paying, and the headaches are the usual ones plus a tariff schedule that changes: customs paperwork, border wait times, and keeping dispatch and billing straight across two currencies. That last part is exactly what a TMS built in Canada for cross-border fleets is for.

What Small and Mid-Size Fleets Should Do Before Q4

A market like this one pays operators who tighten up now, while rates are moving their way.

• Reprice your lanes. With spot above contract, you have more pricing power than at any point since 2021. Walk into bid season knowing your cost per mile on every lane, and let the losers go to someone else.
• Buy for replacement, not expansion. FTR is warning the rebound could hit a ceiling, and demand is flat. Replace the trucks that are eating you alive in maintenance. Do not add capacity into a market that is rising because capacity left.
• Cut the miles that do not pay. Deadhead, detention you never bill, and loads dispatched off gut feel all cost more at $3.00 a mile than they did at $2.00. Good dispatch software shows margin per load before you commit a truck, not after the invoice goes out.
• Hold on to your drivers. The driver pool is shrinking under enforcement, and every fleet in your lanes knows it. Well-maintained equipment and predictable home time keep seats filled, and a fleet manager view of trucks, maintenance, and compliance keeps small problems from parking a unit.
• Audit your fixed costs. Insurance, factoring, and software all crept up during the downturn. Know what each one costs per truck per month, and compare against current pricing before you renew anything.

The bottom line for the back half of 2026: rates up, volumes flat, capacity tight, and cross-border moving through a tariff fight. Fleets that treat this as a repricing window instead of an expansion window will come out of it with the margins to play offense in 2027, when FTR still sees conditions "favorable for carriers" over its two-year horizon (TheTrucker.com, September 10, 2026) and ACT expects rates to "remain supported" (ACT Research, August 28, 2026). The market is finally paying for discipline. Run tight, and get your share of it.

Frequently asked questions

Will trucking get better in 2026?

Rates did: broker-posted spot rates were about 39 percent above a year ago in mid-September (FTR and Truckstop, September 14, 2026). Volumes did not; ATA tonnage sat 0.5 percent below July 2025 (ATA, August 18, 2026). Better for carriers that know cost per mile by lane and reprice as contracts reset, not for carriers adding trucks into flat demand.

What is the Class 8 truck sales forecast for 2026?

FTR counted 18,200 Class 8 orders in August, up 42 percent on the year, and ACT Research counted 16,800, up 31 percent (Transport Topics, September 3, 2026). Most of it is replacement buying: ACT says the tractor fleet has contracted and available equipment remains historically tight (ACT Research, August 28, 2026), so new iron is not adding trucks to the market.

Are freight rates going up in 2027?

FTR sees conditions "favorable for carriers" over its two-year forecast horizon (TheTrucker.com, September 10, 2026) and ACT Research expects rates to "remain supported" (ACT Research, August 28, 2026). Neither publishes a 2027 contract rate a fleet can bid on. The September update above carries the current readings, and cost per mile by lane is the number to bring to bid season.