Trucking Industry Trends and Projections for 2026

The trucking and freight industry is a major component of the economy in the United States, Canada, and all of North America. Trucking carries an estimated 68% of freight in Canada and an estimated 72% of cargo in the United States. The industry was responsible for moving 61.9% of cargo between the U.S. and Canada in 2022 — and 83.5% of cargo between the U.S. in Canada in the same year.
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The trucking industry is and will remain a vital part of the economy in North America and many fleets have questions about what the future will hold. Questions that we hope to answer with a brief overview of the Trucking Industry Trends and Projections for 2026. 

Forecast for the Trucking Industry in 2026

The trucking industry is expected to head toward a period of greater stability in 2026 after years of chaos and volatility. Growth is expected to be moderate in general with higher demand for trucking and freight in key sectors like pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and medical supply that are expected to drive growth for trucking and freight companies. The industry faces a degree of uncertainty in many aspects, including new tariffs and uncertain industry regulations. The industry also expects a decline in Class 8 truck purchases and a focus on replacement-based strategies that will help balance capacity with freight demand — which has the potential to lead to a more stable market.

Improved Stability and Growth

The trucking industry is projected to experience improved stability and moderate growth with an estimated 4.4% growth in the next year. This growth is expected to be driven by a steady demand from important sectors, that include pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and medical supply chains. These industries require efficient transportation and present valuable opportunities for carriers.

Uncertain Regulations

The trucking industry does face a degree of regulatory uncertainty in the next year. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean Truck and GHG-3 regulations are expected to go into effect and include anticipated EPA 2027 compliance and zero-emission mandates that remain a concern for U.S. trucking companies. There remains a lack of clarity on the costs and enforcement guidelines that go hand in hand with legal and political delays. This uncertainty has contributed to a decrease in widespread purchase of trucks to comply with these rules.

Advanced Technology

Technology continues to be a major force in the trucking industry, and tech solutions like Transportation Management Systems (TMS) are expected to play an even more crucial role in 2026. These systems can help trucking companies streamline operations, improve route optimization, and enhance fuel efficiency. A cloud-based TMS can provide increased flexibility, scalability, and enhanced security while reducing infrastructure costs. Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles, and Internet of Things (IoT)-based fleet management are expected to have a continued impact on the industry in 2026.

Increased Driver Shortage

The trucking industry is expected to face an increased driver shortage in the next few years, with the American Trucking Association (ATA) estimating a current shortage of around 60,000 drivers that could grow to 174,000 by the end of 2026. This challenge to the industry is driven by factors like an aging workforce and high turnover rates for long-haul drivers.

Increase in Hot Shot Trucking

Hot Shot Trucking is expected to see an increase in the next year with many carriers focusing on pharmaceutical and healthcare logistics. These sectors can require urgent, time-sensitive deliveries of small, high-value shipments, like vaccines or medications, that don't require a full truckload. Trucking companies that provide hot shot trucking services are well-adapted for these types of deliveries by offering speed and versatility.

Lower Class 8 Truck Sales

The forecast for Class 8 truck sales in 2026 has been updated due to a variety of factors, including lower order counts and uncertain regulations. Instead of a robust pre-buy cycle, many fleets are adopting a replacement-only strategy that focuses on extending the life of trucks rather than expanding fleets. The decline in build rates is helping to rebalance capacity, but the market is expected to remain modest.

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READ MORE: Differences Between On-Premise TMS and Cloud-Based TMS

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Navigating the future of the trucking industry in 2026 requires careful planning and the right tools. This overview of Trucking Industry Trends and Projections for 2026 points to a need for operational efficiency and smart technology to stay ahead, and TransPlus TMS provides a viable solution.
 

‍Contact TransPlus to learn more about how a TransPlus TMS can help you optimize your business and prepare for the challenges and opportunities ahead!